There are many online resources today that allows you to educate yourself on soccer betting, whether you are totally beginner or less. Despite this, most bettors fall into fairly standard traps that can prevent them from making long-term gains from accurate football prediction.
In this article, we will see the most common errors made by bettors, and we will also see how to avoid them.
Misunderstanding the concept of value
The notion of value goes beyond the simple fact of finding a football team that accumulates victories and has a high rating against other teams that has lost several matches in a row and could, therefore, be considered “not fit.”
To understand the notion of value is to understand what the odds represent, it is to calculate one’s own estimation of the probabilities, to convert that probability into a quotation and finally to look for differences between the estimated odds and those which have been fixed by the bookmaker.
Knowing what the value represents, we can then calculate the expectation of winning of any bet, that is to say, the sum that we can expect to win or lose by engaging the same bet several times.
Play on bad bookmakers
Bettors today have a huge selection of bookmakers. An uninitiated bettor can easily get lost and choose the first bookmaker to come.
As in all fields, there are several categories of bookmakers who all have a different approach to betting. Each of the bookmakers claiming to be the best.
Even if many bettors ignore it, you should know that some bookmakers do not let the bettors win. Indeed, on some bookmakers, if you release profits regularly, you will be limited, or your account will even be completely closed.
It is therefore important to choose bookmakers who do not limit the winning players.
Neglecting cognitive biases
It is natural to think that we perfectly control our actions as well as our thoughts. However, when we take a closer look at psychology and behavioral economics, we realize that certain “biases” lead us to depart from what we would categorize as rational judgments.
For example, the “confirmation bias” is one of them: if it is applied to soccer betting, it consists of being attracted by evidence that validates the current bet, while ignoring those that prove otherwise.
Anchoring is another example of bias, often ignored by punters. This is the tendency to rely on the first available information, which can be very problematic in the context of soccer betting.
These deficiencies in objective thinking and logical reasoning can obscure judgment and lead to decisions based on opinion rather than critical thinking. While punters may not be able to control cognitive biases, one of the worst mistakes would be to ignore them.
Too much worry about losses
Loss aversion, that is, preferring to avoid losses rather than gaining potential gains, is another cognitive bias that is very common among gamblers, and of which they are not always aware.
One of the most common misconceptions in soccer betting is to think that good bettors do not lose. It’s totally wrong. In the long run they simply lose less than they earn, which is what makes them profitable. However, during periods of losses, they use a method of bet that ensures them not to leave all their capital. This is what we call management bankroll.
Betting for pleasure
In itself, betting for fun is not a problem when one is aware that one does not bet to make money in the long term, but that one bets with the aim of having a good time. If, on the other hand, the objective is to really make profits, it is essential to bet only when we are sure that the expectation of winning our bet is positive in the long term.
So, rather than wagering on a football match because it’s on television, it’s better to bet on the markets you control or simply follow the most accurate football prediction site. Following tipsters is also one of the methods you can use successfully to win at soccer betting.
